Alpha Real Estate Partners

U.S. Market Recon – August 2018

Economy
Housing
The US economy grew in the past quarter picking up the pace from the previous quarter. Unemployment continues to fall, with the headline rate ticking down to 3.9%. Workers’ earnings continue to fall, with average earnings declining to $934/week. Home ownership continues to rise, with the national rate climbing up to 64%. Home building applications are losing their upward momentum this month and quarterly housing prices continue to rise a further 2.4%.
Employment
Unemployment
3.90%
Long Term Unemployed
22.70%
Participation
62.90%
Earnings
$934
Unemployed and marginally employedclick to enlarge

3.90% of the workforce is unemployed, which is
less than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

Read the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation press release for more in-depth analysis.

Long Term Unemployment
Long term unemploymentclick to enlarge

22.70% of the unemployed have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer which is
less than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

Labor Force Participation
Labor force participationclick to enlarge

62.90% of the population is participating in the labor force, which is
the same as one year ago.

See the BLS’s Labor Force Characteristics for more analysis.

Average Weekly Earnings
Average weekly earningsclick to enlarge

The average weekly earnings of full-time workers is
$934 ($48,546 annualized) which is
lower than one year ago and an indication of a weakening economy.

See the BLS’s Usual Weekly Earnings press release for more analysis.

State Unemployment Rates
State Unemployment Ratesclick to animateclick to enlarge

Lowest: Hawaii; Highest: District of Columbia
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growth
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growthclick to animateclick to enlarge

Lowest: Delaware; Highest: District of Columbia
Macro Economy
GDP
4.20%
Inflation
.17%
Treasury Rates
2.89%
Mortgage Rates
4.53%
GDP Growth
GDPclick to enlarge
% change in GDP from the previous quarter for the previous 10 years
Inflation
CPIclick to enlarge
The consumer price index, core CPI (CPI excluding food and fuel) and the CPI of rent for the previous 10 years.
Mortgage and Benchmark Rates
Mortgage ratesclick to enlarge
10-year US Treasury yield and 30-year residential mortgage rates for the previous 10 years.
Housing
Rental Vacancies
6.80%
Home Vacancies
1.50%
Homeownership
64.30%
Housing Vacancy
Housing vacancyclick to enlarge
6.80% of rental housing is currently vacant, which is
less than one year ago.
State Rental Vacancy
State Rental Vacancyclick to enlarge

Lowest: Rhode Island; Highest: Alabama
Homeownership
Homeownershipclick to enlarge
The homeownership rate is 64.30%, which is
higher than one year ago.
State Homeownership
State Homeownershipclick to enlarge

Lowest: District of Columbia; Highest: West Virginia
Home Building Permits
80k
Multi-Family Building Permits
32k
Housing Prices
2.37%
Building permits
Homeownershipclick to enlarge
Quarterly residential building permit approvals for single family and multifamily dwellings.

12-month Average:

– Single Family Unit Permits:
74,354
– Multifamily Unit Permits:
34,889
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permits, Trailing 12-Months:
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permitsclick to enlarge

The number of authorized housing units, for the previous 12 months, divided by the state’s population.
Housing prices
Housing pricesclick to enlarge

The FHFA housing price index is
higher than one year ago.

Year-over-Year Housing Price Growth
Housing price growthclick to enlarge