Alpha Real Estate Partners

U.S. Market Recon – December 2018

Economy
Housing
The US economy grew in the past quarter, though not as strongly as it had previously. Unemployment is holding steady at 3.7%. Workers’ earnings fell to $941/week this month, though the long-term trend is positive. Rental vacancies are trying to escape their downward trend, with the national rate ticking up to 7.1%. Home ownership continues to rise, with the national rate climbing up to 64%. Home building applications continue to rise this month and quarterly housing prices continue to rise a further 1.5%.
Employment
Unemployment
3.70%
Long Term Unemployed
20.80%
Participation
62.90%
Earnings
$941
Unemployed and marginally employed

3.70% of the workforce is unemployed, which is
less than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

Read the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation press release for more in-depth analysis.

Long Term Unemployment
Long term unemployment

20.80% of the unemployed have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer which is
less than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

Labor Force Participation
Labor force participation

62.90% of the population is participating in the labor force, which is
more than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

See the BLS’s Labor Force Characteristics for more analysis.

Average Weekly Earnings
Average weekly earnings

The average weekly earnings of full-time workers is
$941 ($48,924 annualized) which is
higher than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

See the BLS’s Usual Weekly Earnings press release for more analysis.

State Unemployment Rates
State Unemployment Rates

Lowest: Vermont; Highest: Alaska
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growth
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growth

Lowest: Maryland; Highest: Wyoming
Macro Economy
GDP
3.46%
Inflation
.33%
Treasury Rates
3.12%
Mortgage Rates
4.83%
GDP Growth
GDP
% change in GDP from the previous quarter for the previous 10 years
Inflation
CPI
The consumer price index, core CPI (CPI excluding food and fuel) and the CPI of rent for the previous 10 years.
Mortgage and Benchmark Rates
Mortgage rates
10-year US Treasury yield and 30-year residential mortgage rates for the previous 10 years.
Housing
Rental Vacancies
7.10%
Home Vacancies
1.60%
Homeownership
64.40%
Housing Vacancy
Housing vacancy
7.10% of rental housing is currently vacant, which is
less than one year ago.
State Rental Vacancy
State Rental Vacancy

Lowest: Idaho; Highest: North Dakota
Homeownership
Homeownership
The homeownership rate is 64.40%, which is
higher than one year ago.
State Homeownership
State Homeownership

Lowest: District of Columbia; Highest: West Virginia
Home Building Permits
77k
Multi-Family Building Permits
35k
Housing Prices
1.51%
Building permits
Homeownership
Quarterly residential building permit approvals for single family and multifamily dwellings.

12-month Average:

– Single Family Unit Permits:
74,674
– Multifamily Unit Permits:
34,059
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permits, Trailing 12-Months:
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permits

The number of authorized housing units, for the previous 12 months, divided by the state’s population.
Housing prices
Housing prices

The FHFA housing price index is
higher than one year ago.

Year-over-Year Housing Price Growth
Housing price growth