Alpha Real Estate Partners

U.S. Market Recon – July 2018

Economy
Housing
The US economy grew in the past quarter picking up the pace from the previous quarter. Unemployment is trying to escape its downward trend, with the headline rate ticking up to 4.0%. Workers’ earnings climbed to $931/week this month, though the long-term trend is negative. Rental vacancies are trying to escape their downward trend, with the national rate ticking up to 7.0%. Home ownership is holding steady at 64%. Home building applications continue to rise this month and quarterly housing prices continue to rise a further 1.2%.
Employment
Unemployment
4.00%
Long Term Unemployed
23.00%
Participation
62.90%
Earnings
$931
Unemployed and marginally employed

4.00% of the workforce is unemployed, which is
less than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

Read the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation press release for more in-depth analysis.

Long Term Unemployment
Long term unemployment

23.00% of the unemployed have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer which is
less than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

Labor Force Participation
Labor force participation

62.90% of the population is participating in the labor force, which is
more than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

See the BLS’s Labor Force Characteristics for more analysis.

Average Weekly Earnings
Average weekly earnings

The average weekly earnings of full-time workers is
$931 ($48,402 annualized) which is
lower than one year ago and an indication of a weakening economy.

See the BLS’s Usual Weekly Earnings press release for more analysis.

State Unemployment Rates
State Unemployment Rates

Lowest: Hawaii; Highest: Alaska
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growth
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growth

Lowest: Alaska; Highest: Michigan
Macro Economy
GDP
3.10%
Inflation
.21%
Treasury Rates
2.91%
Mortgage Rates
4.59%
GDP Growth
GDP
% change in GDP from the previous quarter for the previous 10 years
Inflation
CPI
The consumer price index, core CPI (CPI excluding food and fuel) and the CPI of rent for the previous 10 years.
Mortgage and Benchmark Rates
Mortgage rates
10-year US Treasury yield and 30-year residential mortgage rates for the previous 10 years.
Housing
Rental Vacancies
7.00%
Home Vacancies
1.50%
Homeownership
64.20%
Housing Vacancy
Housing vacancy
7.00% of rental housing is currently vacant, which is
the same as one year ago.
State Rental Vacancy
State Rental Vacancy

Lowest: Maine; Highest: North Dakota
Homeownership
Homeownership
The homeownership rate is 64.20%, which is
higher than one year ago.
State Homeownership
State Homeownership

Lowest: District of Columbia; Highest: West Virginia
Home Building Permits
87k
Multi-Family Building Permits
37k
Housing Prices
1.21%
Building permits
Homeownership
Quarterly residential building permit approvals for single family and multifamily dwellings.

12-month Average:

– Single Family Unit Permits:
73,728
– Multifamily Unit Permits:
35,032
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permits, Trailing 12-Months:
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permits

The number of authorized housing units, for the previous 12 months, divided by the state’s population.
Housing prices
Housing prices

The FHFA housing price index is
higher than one year ago.

Year-over-Year Housing Price Growth
Housing price growth