Alpha Real Estate Partners

U.S. Market Recon – May 2019

Economy
Housing
The US economy grew in the past quarter picking up the pace from the previous quarter. Unemployment continues to fall, with the headline rate ticking down to 3.6%. Workers’ earnings fell to $955/week this month, though the long-term trend is positive. Home ownership is losing its upward momentum, with the national rate declining to 64%. Home building applications are trying to escape their downward trend this month and quarterly housing prices continue to rise a further 0.3%.
Employment
Unemployment
3.60%
Long Term Unemployed
21.10%
Participation
62.80%
Earnings
$955
Unemployed and marginally employed

3.60% of the workforce is unemployed, which is
less than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

Read the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation press release for more in-depth analysis.

Long Term Unemployment
Long term unemployment

21.10% of the unemployed have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer which is
more than one year ago and an indication of a weakening economy.

Labor Force Participation
Labor force participation

62.80% of the population is participating in the labor force, which is
the same as one year ago.

See the BLS’s Labor Force Characteristics for more analysis.

Average Weekly Earnings
Average weekly earnings

The average weekly earnings of full-time workers is
$955 ($49,675 annualized) which is
higher than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

See the BLS’s Usual Weekly Earnings press release for more analysis.

State Unemployment Rates
State Unemployment Rates

Lowest: Vermont; Highest: Alaska
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growth
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growth

Lowest: Maryland; Highest: District of Columbia
Macro Economy
GDP
3.13%
Inflation
.41%
Treasury Rates
2.53%
Mortgage Rates
4.14%
GDP Growth
GDP
% change in GDP from the previous quarter for the previous 10 years
Inflation
CPI
The consumer price index, core CPI (CPI excluding food and fuel) and the CPI of rent for the previous 10 years.
Mortgage and Benchmark Rates
Mortgage rates
10-year US Treasury yield and 30-year residential mortgage rates for the previous 10 years.
Housing
Rental Vacancies
7.00%
Home Vacancies
1.40%
Homeownership
64.20%
Housing Vacancy
Housing vacancy
7.00% of rental housing is currently vacant, which is
the same as one year ago.
State Rental Vacancy
State Rental Vacancy

Lowest: Massachusetts; Highest: Alabama
Homeownership
Homeownership
The homeownership rate is 64.20%, which is
the same as one year ago.
State Homeownership
State Homeownership

Lowest: District of Columbia; Highest: New Hampshire
Home Building Permits
71k
Multi-Family Building Permits
33k
Housing Prices
.32%
Building permits
Homeownership
Quarterly residential building permit approvals for single family and multifamily dwellings.

12-month Average:

– Single Family Unit Permits:
72,944
– Multifamily Unit Permits:
34,944
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permits, Trailing 12-Months:
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permits

The number of authorized housing units, for the previous 12 months, divided by the state’s population.
Housing prices
Housing prices

The FHFA housing price index is
higher than one year ago.

Year-over-Year Housing Price Growth
Housing price growth