Alpha Real Estate Partners

U.S. Market Recon – September 2020

Economy
Housing
The US economy shrank in the past quarter continuing its previous decline. Unemployment is losing its upward momentum, with the headline rate ticking down to 8.4%. Workers’ earnings continue to rise, with average earnings climbing to $1,020/week. Rental vacancies continue to fall, with the national rate ticking down to 5.7%. Home ownership continues to rise, with the national rate climbing up to 68%. Home building applications continue to rise this month and quarterly housing prices continue to rise a further 0.7%.
Employment
Unemployment
8.40%
Long Term Unemployed
12.00%
Participation
61.70%
Earnings
$1020
Unemployed and marginally employed

8.40% of the workforce is unemployed, which is
more than one year ago and an indication of a weakening economy.

Read the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation press release for more in-depth analysis.

Long Term Unemployment
Long term unemployment

12.00% of the unemployed have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer which is
less than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

Labor Force Participation
Labor force participation

61.70% of the population is participating in the labor force, which is
less than one year ago and an indication of a weakening economy.

See the BLS’s Labor Force Characteristics for more analysis.

Average Weekly Earnings
Average weekly earnings

The average weekly earnings of full-time workers is
$1,020 ($53,022 annualized) which is
higher than one year ago and an indication of a strengthening economy.

See the BLS’s Usual Weekly Earnings press release for more analysis.

State Unemployment Rates
State Unemployment Rates

Lowest: Utah; Highest: Massachusetts
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growth
Year-over-Year Average Weekly Earnings Growth

Lowest: North Dakota; Highest: New Hampshire
Macro Economy
GDP
-36.37%
Inflation
.59%
Treasury Rates
.65%
Mortgage Rates
3.02%
GDP Growth
GDP
% change in GDP from the previous quarter for the previous 10 years
Inflation
CPI
The consumer price index, core CPI (CPI excluding food and fuel) and the CPI of rent for the previous 10 years.
Mortgage and Benchmark Rates
Mortgage rates
10-year US Treasury yield and 30-year residential mortgage rates for the previous 10 years.
Housing
Rental Vacancies
5.70%
Home Vacancies
.90%
Homeownership
67.90%
Housing Vacancy
Housing vacancy
5.70% of rental housing is currently vacant, which is
less than one year ago.
State Rental Vacancy
State Rental Vacancy

Lowest: Maine; Highest: Alabama
Homeownership
Homeownership
The homeownership rate is 67.90%, which is
higher than one year ago.
State Homeownership
State Homeownership

Lowest: District of Columbia; Highest: Delaware
Home Building Permits
84k
Multi-Family Building Permits
47k
Housing Prices
.73%
Building permits
Homeownership
Quarterly residential building permit approvals for single family and multifamily dwellings.

12-month Average:

– Single Family Unit Permits:
73,201
– Multifamily Unit Permits:
37,919
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permits, Trailing 12-Months:
Per-Capita Authorized Building Permits

The number of authorized housing units, for the previous 12 months, divided by the state’s population.
Housing prices
Housing prices

The FHFA housing price index is
higher than one year ago.

Year-over-Year Housing Price Growth
Housing price growth